If you only get one thing right in life, make it timing.
Timing is the difference between doing something easily or with difficulty. Often it determines whether it is possible to do the thing at all.
I remember getting lunch with Bryan Caplan back in May of 2021 and explaining to him what Substack was. “It’s the cool new blogging platform that Matt Yglesias uses”, I stammered.
Starting before people knew what Substack was—and landing my first hit around that time—is the reason I’ve built an audience.1 These days big fish like Marc Andreessen launch newsletters here and it can be almost impossible to compete with that if you don’t already have a following.
But before Marc was writing on Substack, he was scoping it out and subscribing to newsletters like mine.2
It’s possible to arrive too early. To await trains that have not yet arrived, on platforms that may never be built.3 But in general what feels like it may be too early is actually the right time.
A year ago I married a girl I barely knew by the standards of my peers. And that has made all the difference.
If I ever lose you Marc, subscriber net worth may never recover.
To paraphrase Wallace Stegner, whom Arnold Kling is quite fond of quoting.